Abstract
Macroeconomic stability is a multidimensional concept covering price dynamics, real activity gaps, fiscal–debt positions, external balances, reserve adequacy, and financial-sector soundness. This paper proposes a policy-oriented Macroeconomic Stability Indicator Set (MSIS) and a composite Macroeconomic Stability Index (MSI) tailored for upper-middle-income reforming economies such as Uzbekistan. We align indicator definitions with international standards (IMF, World Bank, EU MIP, OECD), specify normalization and weighting schemes (z-scores, PCA, and policy weights), and outline robustness checks. Using publicly available series (WDI, IMF Article IV/WEO, IFS, and national sources), we document recent dynamics relevant to Uzbekistan—disinflation followed by an energy-price-reform-related uptick in 2024–2025; current account deficit compression in 2024; high reserve cover; and strong real growth—motivating a refined stability scoreboard and early-warning composite. The framework supports transparent surveillance, rule-consistent thresholds, and prioritization of reforms.
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