Vol. 4 No. 8 (2026), Articles
Vol. 4 No. 8 (2026)

DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS OF UZBEKISTAN: TRENDS AND REGIONAL DISPARITIES

Articles
Published 2026-05-15
Nuratdinov A.U
Karakalpak State University
Matkurbanova A.K.
Karakalpak State University
Qayipbaeva M.Y
Karakalpak State University
Abdikadirova Z.M
Karakalpak State University
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Keywords

Uzbekistan demographics; population dynamics; fertility rate; regional disparities; Central Asia; vital statistics; urbanization; natural population increase

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of demographic dynamics in the Republic of Uzbekistan over the period 2010–2025, based on official SDMX data from the State Committee of Statistics. Utilizing a multi-dimensional approach encompassing population growth, vital rates, spatial distribution, and marriage patterns, the research identifies major trends shaping Uzbekistan's demographic landscape. The total population grew from 28.0 million in 2010 to 37.5 million in 2025, representing a 34.1% increase. The general fertility rate (per 1,000 women aged 15–49) rose from 22.0 in 2010 to a peak of 26.4 in 2023 before declining to 23.2 in 2025. Strong inter-regional disparities persist: Surkhandarya (42.0%) and Tashkent city (39.3%) recorded the highest population growth, while Tashkent city reached an urban density of 6,948 persons/km². The natural increase narrowed from 44,083 in 2010 to 8,958 in 2025, reflecting convergence in birth and death rates. These findings have direct implications for spatial planning, social infrastructure policy, and fertility-related health interventions in Central Asia.

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